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                《中國日報》:(趙忠秀)是時候重新認識產業政策↑與補貼◇背後的經濟原理亏于一篑了

                發布時間: 球王会中国)官方网站11月09日 編輯: 羅梓桐、陳欣

                Time to revisit economic rationale for industrial policy and subsidies

                是時候重新認識產業政策與補貼背後的悄悄經濟原理了

                (來源:《中國日報》2023-11-08)

                The global economy has reached a new critical juncture, where techno-nationalist industrial policies are regaining popularity, while de-risking and the fragmentation of global value chains seem to be the unfolding reality. At this point, we need to revisit the economic rationale for industrial policy, from the triple perspective of theory, history and policy.

                全球經濟已到達一個全新的關鍵時刻,技術民族主義的產業政策正重新獲得青睞,去風險化與全球價值鏈的碎片化是必然趨勢。在此,我們應當從理刘超华論、歷史與政策三方面重新認識產業政策的經濟原理。

                The developed world, particularly the United States, used to favor laissez-faire over government intervention and aggressively promoted the free market doctrine, better known as the "Washington Consensus", among developing countries. Free-market advocates often dismiss the necessity for industrial policy, citing information barriers and potential rent-seeking as powerful arguments against it.

                發達國家,尤其是美ω國,曾偏好自由放任而非政府幹預,且積極地在發展中國家中推龙去鼎湖廣自由市場學說,也即人們通常說的“華盛頓共識”。自由市場的倡導者往往否定產業政策的必要ω 性,並認為信息壁壘和潛在的尋租是反對產業政策的有力論據。

                However, in the face of the intensified competition for technological supremacy and increasing geopolitical complexity, and in order to address a variety of issues — competition with China, resilience of supply chains and green transition — there has been a self-conscious resurgence of industrial policy in the developed world in recent years, most notably industrial policy toward the semiconductor industry (as exemplified by the Chips and Science Act in the US, and the European Chips Act in the European Union).

                然而,面對技術霸權◆的激烈競爭及日益復雜表达式的地緣政治,且為了恍如梦寐解決各色各樣的問題——與中國的競爭、供應鏈的彈性和綠色轉型之類——近年來,發達國家有意識地讓產業政策重現天日,而最顯著的︾當屬針對半導體產業的產業政策(如美國的《芯片和科學法案》,以及歐盟的《歐洲芯片法案》)。

                Through techno-nationalist semiconductor industrial policies, primarily in the form of direct subsidies and tax credits, all major developed economies in the world have been pushing for the "reshoring" of advanced chip manufacturing capacity, as well as the localization or friend-shoring of their respective semiconductor supply chains.

                通過擁有濃厚技術民族主義色彩」的、主要以直接補貼和稅收免抵兩種形式實現的半導體產業台球政策,全球所有主要發達經濟體都在推動先進芯片制造能力的“回流”,以及半導體供應鏈的本█地化或友岸外包。

                While this process is still unfolding, the following phenomenon is already emerging: the global race among countries has led to the fragmentation of the global semiconductor value chains and markets, which in turn may result in halting innovations, increasing overcapacity and underutilization, and global technological bifurcation. It could even jeopardize the highly efficient business and innovation model of the semiconductor industry that has been operating on the basis of delicate specialization along the semiconductor GVC.

                這一過程正才微智浅在展開的同時,以下幾種現象也已出現:全球國際競爭導致了全球半導體價值鏈與郭俊市場的分裂,而這可能會導致創新停止、產能過剩和为德不卒利用不足的加劇,以及全球技術分化。它甚至可〖能危及半導體行業的高效商業和←創新模式,而冬天一直以來,這種模式以半導體全球價值鏈的微妙專業化為基礎運作。

                Poor industrial policy can stifle innovation, result in misallocation of capital, give rise to inefficiency, intensify market concentration and distortion, and waste valuable taxpayers' money. To economists, it has been of much interest to explore and identify, both theoretically and empirically (historically), the conditions (necessary and sufficient) under which the industrial policy can achieve its objectives, policy implementation can be made more efficient and welfare-enhancing and Pareto-improvement can be achieved.

                糟糕的◣產業政策會扼殺創新,導致資本錯配不能,導致效率低下,加劇市場集中和扭曲,浪費納稅人的寶貴∴資金。對於經濟學家來說,從理論上和末大必折實證上(歷史上)探索和確定產業政策能夠實現其目標的條件(必要和充分)是很有意義的,政策執行的效√率可以提高,福利增進和Pareto優化也得以實現。

                 

                In recent years, there has been a revival of scholarly interest in industrial policy (for a recent sample, see Willy C. Shih's September article in Harvard Business Review), and a substantial body of research has emerged that offers more robust empirical evidence on the functioning and impacts of industrial policy (for a review, see National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 31538). This literature improves on the earlier empirical work, which was plagued by causal ambiguity and interpretational issues, and offers in general a much more positive take on industrial policy.

                近年來,學術界對產業政※策的興趣重新燃起(最新樣本參考Willy C. Shih在《哈佛商業◥評論》上發教妇初来教子婴孩表的文章),並且有大量研究湧現,為產業政策的運作和影響提供了更有力■的實證證據(相關評論,請參閱美國國家經濟研究局第31538號工作文件)。這些文獻改進了早期受到因果模糊和解釋問題的困擾的實證工作,並且大體上對產業政策提出了更積極的看法。

                 

                More importantly, it provides a more nuanced and contextualized understanding of industrial policy, enabling economists to engage more productively in debates on the subject in a way that adds light rather than heat.

                更重要的海青是,它提供了對產業政策更細致入微和情境化的理解,使經濟學家能夠以切中要害】的方式更有效地參與關於从壁上观該主題的辯論。

                 

                In a nutshell, while the early literature on East Asia's experience was sharply divided, more recent studies tend to demonstrate more convincingly that certain types of industrial policy have been quite effective in driving structural change in countries such as Japan, the Republic of Korea and China.

                簡言之,雖然關於東亞經驗的早期文獻存在嚴重分歧,但最近的研究傾向於以更令人信服的方式◎證明,某些類型的產業政策在推動日本、韓國和中國等國的轉型升⊙級這一方面非常有效。

                 

                However, these success stories are highly contextualized and sensitive to local opportunities and constraints, particularly institutional differences, and are difficult to generalize out of context, tending to call for a broadly strategic and dynamic approach to the industrial policy practice.

                然而,這些成功案例高度依賴於其背景,對於當地的機會和制約因素——尤其石头是體制差異——極為敏感,難以一概而論,且往往要求對產業政策實踐采取廣泛◤的戰略性、動態性方法。

                Moreover, recent studies, too, tend to suggest that the debate on industrial policy should probably focus on how (how should industrial policy be implemented), rather than whether (whether governments should adopt industrial policy).

                此外,最近沙坪坝区的研究也傾向於表明,關於產業政策的辯論可能應該集中在“怎樣”(如何實施產業政策)而不是“是否”(政府是否應該采取產業政策)上。

                 

                On the more practical policy side, various financial incentives, especially industrial subsidies, have been the major tools for implementing industrial policy. Amid the recent resurgence of techno-nationalistic industrial policy worldwide, the ramping up of subsidies by some of the world's largest economies has contributed to the significant increase in global trade tensions, raising concerns over the potential for subsidy wars — subsidy competition that leads to a race to the bottom.

                在更實際的政策平生莫作皱眉事方面,各種財政激勵措施,特別是產業補貼,一直是實施產業政策的主要工具。在最近全球技術民族主義產業政策的復興中,世界上一些最大的經濟體加大了補貼力度,導致全球貿易緊讽德诵功張局勢大幅加劇,引發了人們對補貼戰爭可能性的擔憂——補貼競爭往往會帶來逐底競爭。

                However, history, especially the period preceding the conclusion of the Tokyo Round Subsidies Code in 1979, has taught us that competitive subsidization leads to mutually wasteful expenditure and a lose-lose situation, thereby reducing the overall welfare of the world. In view of past experiences, it is essential that policy advisers and policy makers review the justifications for, and limits of, industrial subsidies, as well as the appropriate subsidization procedure.

                然而,尤以1979年《東京回合補貼法》締結之前的時坎因鲁斯期為主的歷史告訴我們,競爭性補貼會導致相互浪費的支出和雙輸的局面,從而降低№世界的整體福利。鑒於過去的經驗,政策冰冻新星顧問和政策制定者必須審查工業補貼的理由和限制,以及適當的補貼程序。

                Also, it's high time major economies worked together to reach a consensus on the rules governing industrial subsidies within a multilateral framework (for example, the World Trade Organization system), so as to prevent efficiency-weakening competitive subsidization. It is widely recognized that within the WTO system, there are strict rules (the Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Agreement) governing export subsidies and import substitution subsidies, but the rules for more general industrial subsides (that is, subsidies "specific" to a company, industry or group of industries) are at best a gray area (generally permitted yet actionable if found to cause adverse effects on trade).

                同時,現在正是ξ主要經濟體應當共同努力,在多邊框架我从来我从来(例如世界貿易組織體系)內就工業補貼規則達成共識的時候,這樣才能防止削弱效率的競爭性補貼。人們普遍認东尼識到,在世貿組織體商人玛力吉系內ξ ,有嚴格的規則(《補貼和反補貼措施協定》)管理出口補貼和進口替代補貼,但更籠統肖红军的工業補貼(即“針對”某一公司、行業或產業集團的補貼)的規則充其量只是一個灰色地帶(通常是被允許的,但如果發暗水护腕現它對貿易造成不利影響,就應當采︼取行動)。

                In short, in the face of rising industrial policies across the globe, the world (and the WTO in particular) needs an updated toolbox. Fortunately, the major economies and international organizations (such as the WTO, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) seem to have taken note of the issues and have started to work in this direction.

                簡言之,面對全球不麦琳的信件斷上升的產業政策,世界(尤其是世貿組織)需要更有效的工具。幸運的是,主要經濟體和國際組兽人战弓織(如世貿組織、國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行和經濟合作與發展組織)似乎已經註意到了這些取友必端問題,並開始為應對它們而努力。


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